Monday, November 23, 2009

Romanian Election Poised to Go to Run-Off

November 21, 2009

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Tomorrow’s presidential election in Romania will likely need a second round, according to a poll by CCSB. 35 per cent of respondents would vote for incumbent Traian Basescu in the first round, up one point since early November.

Mircea Geoana of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is second with 31 per cent, followed by Crin Antonescu of the National Liberal Party (PNL) with 18 per cent, and Bucharest mayor Sorin Oprescu with eight per cent. Support is lower for Corneliu Vadim Tudor of the Party of Great Romania (PRM), George Becali of the New Generation - Christian Democrat Party (PNG-CD), and Kelemen Hunor of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR)

In run-off scenarios featuring Basescu, the incumbent is tied with Orescu and trails Geoana by six points, and Antonescu by four points.

Basescu won the presidential run-off in December 2004 as the candidate of the Alliance for Justice and Truth (DA)—comprising the Democratic Party (PD) and the PNL—with 51.23 per cent of the vote.

Romania held a legislative election in November 2008. Final results gave the coalition of the PSD and the Conservative Party (PC) 33.09 per cent of the vote and 114 seats in the lower house, followed by the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L) with 32.36 per cent and 115 mandates. Basescu nominated PD-L leader Emil Boc to take over as prime minister from Calin Popescu Tariceanu.

On Oct. 13, the Romanian government collapsed following a defeat in a confidence vote. Opposition parties rejected Boc’s government for proposing pension reforms aimed at securing funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This will not prevent the presidential election from happening.

On Oct. 22, Basescu announced that Romanians, in conjunction with the first round of the presidential election, would participate in a referendum on switching the country’s legislative body from a bi-cameral entity to a unicameral parliament.

On Nov. 19, Geoana declared: "I am confident I would win the second round of the presidential elections."

Romanians are called to elect a president on Nov. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters must take place within 14 days.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in Romania’s presidential election?

Nov. 14
Nov. 3
Oct. 2009
Traian Basescu
35%
34%
31%
Mircea Geoana (PSD)
31%
30%
20%
Crin Antonescu (PNL)
18%
18%
18%
Sorin Oprescu (Ind.)
8%
14%
14%
Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM)
5%
3%
8%
George Becali (PNG-CD)
2%
1%
6%
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)
2%
1%
2%
Run-off scenarios
Traian Basescu 47% - 53% Mircea Geoana (PSD) 
Traian Basescu 48% - 52% Crin Antonescu (PNL) 
Traian Basescu 50% - 50% Sorin Oprescu (Ind.)
Source: CCSB 
Methodology: Interviews with 1,195 Romanian adults, conducted on Nov. 13 and Nov. 14, 2009. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.

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