Monday, November 9, 2009

A game theory analysis of the Romanian Presidential Elections

By Constantin Belu

Below you can find a game theory take on the forthcoming presidential elections. This is a very crude analysis but I would be happy to discuss ways to enrich the model.

The bottom line is that given the particular structure of this game, from a purely statistical perspective, Traian Basescu has rather slim (25%) chances to win. He would have to try to force an alliance with either of the other two relevant contenders, before the first round of elections. On the other hand, the other two contenders would have similar pay-offs by forging an alliance with either TB or the remaining contender (in my model, the prime-ministerial position counts as a relevant outcome).

Disclaimer: Obviously, I will not take any responsibility for any harm produced in connection with this crude analysis and I wish to make you aware of potential remaining errors.


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