Friday, October 16, 2009

Romania’s Basescu Would Lose in Run-Off Vote



October 16, 2009

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The odds of Romanian president Traian Basescu securing a new term later this year are slim if the ballot goes to a second round, according to a poll by CCSB. 31 per cent of respondents would vote for Basescu in the November ballot, down three points since September.

Mircea Geoana of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is second with 20 per cent, followed by Crin Antonescu of the National Liberal Party (PNL) with 18 per cent, Bucharest mayor Sorin Oprescu with 14 per cent, Corneliu Vadim Tudor of the Party of Great Romania (PRM) with eight per cent, George Becali of the New Generation - Christian Democrat Party (PNG-CD) with six per cent, and Kelemen Hunor of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) with two per cent.

In three prospective run-off scenarios, Basescu trails Antonescu, Geoana and Oprescu.

Basescu won the presidential run-off in December 2004 as the candidate of the Alliance for Justice and Truth (DA)—comprising the Democratic Party (PD) and the PNL—with 51.23 per cent of the vote.

Romania held a legislative election in November 2008. Final results gave the coalition of the PSD and the Conservative Party (PC) 33.09 per cent of the vote and 114 seats in the lower house, followed by the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L) with 32.36 per cent and 115 mandates. Basescu nominated PD-L leader Emil Boc to take over as prime minister from Calin Popescu Tariceanu.

On Oct. 13, the Romanian government collapsed following a defeat in a confidence vote. Opposition parties rejected Boc’s government for proposing pension reforms aimed at securing funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Boc, a Basescu ally, said that the election will be the real test to see what political force prevails, declaring, "We have lost a battle, yet not the war."

Romanians are called to elect a president on Nov. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters must take place within 14 days.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in Romania’s presidential election?


Oct. 2009
Sept. 2009
Jul. 2009
Traian Basescu
31%
34%
38%
Mircea Geoana (PSD)
20%
18%
19%
Crin Antonescu (PNL)
18%
19%
19%
Sorin Oprescu (Ind.)
14%
n.a.
n.a.
Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM)
8%
7%
12%
George Becali (PNG-CD)
6%
8%
n.a.
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)
2%
1%
3%
Nati Meir (Ind.)
--
--
n.a.
Remus Cernea (PV)
--
--
n.a.
Ioan Talpes (Ind.)
--
n.a.
n.a.
Prince Radu Duda
n.a.
n.a.
7%
Run-off scenarios
Traian Basescu 46% - 54% Crin Antonescu (PNL) 
Traian Basescu 47% - 53% Mircea Geoana (PSD) 
Traian Basescu 43% - 57% Sorin Oprescu (Ind.)
Source: CCSB 
Methodology: Interviews with 1,022 Romanian adults, conducted on Oct. 2 and Oct. 3, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.


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