Thursday, October 22, 2009

Romanian Presidential Election May Need Run-Off



(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - No candidate running for next month’s presidential election in Romania appears to have enough votes to secure a victory in the first round, according to a poll by CURS. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for incumbent Traian Basescu in the upcoming ballot, down one point since August.

Mircea Geoana of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is second with 24 per cent, followed by Crin Antonescu of the National Liberal Party (PNL) with 15 per cent, Bucharest mayor Sorin Oprescu with 13 per cent, Corneliu Vadim Tudor of the Party of Great Romania (PRM) with seven per cent, George Becali of the New Generation - Christian Democrat Party (PNG-CD) with five per cent, and Kelemen Hunor of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) with three per cent.

Basescu won the presidential run-off in December 2004 as the candidate of the Alliance for Justice and Truth (DA)—comprising the Democratic Party (PD) and the PNL—with 51.23 per cent of the vote.

Romania held a legislative election in November 2008. Final results gave the coalition of the PSD and the Conservative Party (PC) 33.09 per cent of the vote and 114 seats in the lower house, followed by the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L) with 32.36 per cent and 115 mandates. Basescu nominated PD-L leader Emil Boc to take over as prime minister from Calin Popescu Tariceanu.

On Oct. 13, the Romanian government collapsed following a defeat in a confidence vote. Opposition parties rejected Boc’s government for proposing pension reforms aimed at securing funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Oct. 18, Basescu talked about his first term in office, saying, "I am dissatisfied with my first mandate. I am dissatisfied with what I failed to do. I wanted to do so much more, some things I did, others not, but in my soul I feel dissatisfaction."

Romanians are called to elect a president on Nov. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters must take place within 14 days.

Polling Data

If a presidential election were held next Sunday, who would you vote for?

Oct. 2009
Aug. 2009
Jun. 2009
Traian Basescu (PD-L)
32%
33%
36%
Mircea Geoana (PSD)
24%
27%
24%
Crin Antonescu (PNL)
15%
13%
20%
Sorin Oprescu (Ind.)
13%
8%
n.a.
Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM)
7%
8%
11%
George Becali (PNG-CD)
5%
n.a.
n.a.
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)
3%
3%
2%
Other candidate
1%
2%
1%
Prince Radu Duda
n.a.
2%
5%
Nati Meir
n.a.
n.a.
1%
Source: CURS 
Methodology: Interviews to 1,500 Romanian voters, conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 7, 2009. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

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