Monday, August 24, 2009

Basescu Down, Geoana Up in Romania

August 23, 2009

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Incumbent Traian Basescu is holding on to the top spot in Romania’s presidential race, according to a poll by CURS. 33 per cent of respondents would support the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L) candidate in this year’s ballot, down three points since June.Mircea Geoana of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is second with 27 per cent, followed by Crin Antonescu of the National Liberal Party (PNL) with 13 per cent, Bucharest mayor Sorin Oprescu with eight per cent, Corneliu Vadim Tudor of the Party of Great Romania (PRM) also with eight per cent, Kelemen Hunor of the Hungarian Democratic Alliance of Romania (UDMR) with three per cent, and Prince Radu Duda with two per cent.

In prospective run-off scenarios, Basescu is virtually tied with Geoana. Both candidates hold the upper hand in head-to-head contests against Antonescu.

Basescu won the presidential run-off in December 2004 as the candidate of the Alliance for Justice and Truth (DA)—comprising the Democratic Party (PD) and the PNL—with 51.23 per cent of the vote.Romania held a legislative election in November 2008.

Final results gave the coalition of the PSD and the Conservative Party (PC) 33.09 per cent of the vote and 114 seats in the lower house, followed by the PD-L with 32.36 per cent and 115 mandates. Basescu nominated PD-L leader Emil Boc to take over as prime minister from Calin Popescu Tariceanu.

Last month, Oprescu said he was pondering whether to join the presidential race as an independent, saying, "I am not ruling it out, but it doesn’t mean I’ve made a decision. I need more time, for it’s a very important decision. I need people’s sympathy and faith. This is not a time for play, it is a very serious matter."Romania must hold a presidential election by the end of November 2009. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters must take place within 14 days.

Polling Data

If a presidential election were held next Sunday, who would you vote for?


Aug. 2009

Jun. 2009

Traian Basescu (PD-L)

33%

36%

Mircea Geoana (PSD)

27%

24%

Crin Antonescu (PNL)

13%

20%

Sorin Oprescu

8%

n.a.

Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM)

8%

11%

Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)

3%

2%

Prince Radu Duda

2%

5%

Nati Meir

n.a.

1%

The Democratic National Peasant Party (PNTCD) candidate

n.a.

1%

Other candidate

2%

1%

Run-Off Scenarios

Traian Basescu (PD-L) 46% - 44% Mircea Geoana (PSD)
Traian Basescu (PD-L) 49% - 39% Crin Antonescu (PNL)
Mircea Geoana (PSD) 52% - 35% Crin Antonescu (PNL)

Source: CURS
Methodology: Interviews to 1,500 Romanian voters, conducted from Jul. 22 to Aug. 2, 2009. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

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