Monday, May 18, 2009

Basescu Leads Voting Intention in Romania

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Incumbent Traian Basescu is the early favourite in Romania’s presidential race, according to a poll by Group for Social Studies (GSS). 30.8 per cent of respondents would vote for Basescu in this year’s election.

Mircea Geoana of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is second with 24.3 per cent, followed by Crin Antonescu of the National Liberal Party (PNL) with 20.3 per cent, Gigi Becali of the New Generation Party (PNG) with 7.8 per cent, Prince Radu Duda with 6.3 per cent, and Corneliu Vadim Tudor of the Party of Great Romania (PRM) with 5.5 per cent.

If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round of a Romanian presidential election, a run-off between the top two vote-getters must take place within 14 days. 50 per cent of respondents believe someone could defeat Basescu in this year’s ballot.

Basescu won the presidential run-off in December 2004 as the candidate of the Alliance for Justice and Truth (DA)—comprising the Democratic Party (PD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL)—with 51.23 per cent of the vote.

Romania held a legislative election in November 2008. Final results gave the coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Conservative Party (PC) 33.09 per cent of the vote and 114 seats in the lower house, followed by the Democratic Liberal Party (PD-L) with 32.36 per cent and 115 mandates. Basescu nominated PD-L leader Emil Boc to take over as prime minister from Calin Popescu Tariceanu.

Last month, Prince Radu Duda—a former actor who married the eldest daughter of former Romanian King Michael, Princess Margareta—launched his presidential bid, saying, "When a people can no longer suffer, when a system humiliates its own citizens, when we no longer have dignity or hope, then come the great changes. I call on you to put order and dignity in Romania’s affairs, to respect the institution, the constitution and the laws and to respect ourselves."

Romania must hold a presidential election by the end of November 2009.

Polling Data

If a presidential election were held next Sunday, who would you vote for?

Traian Basescu

30.8%

Mircea Geoana (PSD)

24.3%

Crin Antonescu (PNL)

20.3%

Gigi Becali (PNG)

7.8%

Prince Radu Duda

6.3%

Corneliu Vadim Tudor (PRM)

5.5%

Do you believe there is a politician in Romania capable to defeat Traian Basescu in the future presidential elections?

Yes

50.0%

No

25.7%

Don’t know

24.3%

Source: Group for Social Studies (GSS) 
Methodology: Interviews with 1,092 Romanian adults, conducted from May 3 to May 5, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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