Sofia Echo
The local elections on June 1 provided the much-awaited reassessment of Romania’s political scene, setting the stage for parliamentary polls in autumn and offering a hint on the composition and trends in the country’s next legislature. With something tangible at stake, unlike last year’s European Parliament elections (Brussels is still very much a terra incognita that is of little concern to the average voter), the polls gave the closest estimate of the political parties’ standing with the electorate.
The main winner was the Democrat-Liberal party (PDL), which has made backing president Traian Basescu to the hilt its only political doctrine. Basescu, of course, is the former leader of the party, having resigned in order to become president, as he is required to do under the constitution. As usually happens in such circumstances in the Balkans, however, he continues to steer the party, barely bothering to hide the fact.
PDL received 28.4 per cent of all votes, pipping ahead of the Social Democrats (PSD), who won 28.2 per cent of the vote, final data from the electoral authorities showed. In terms of county councillors, both parties won 425 seats.
Despite the parity, PDL is entitled to view the results as an undoubted success. Four years ago, it took the combined efforts of the PDL, then named the Democratic Party, and the National-Liberals (PNL), to match the might of the ruling PSD in local polls.
Since then, the alliance between the Democrats and PNL managed to narrowly defeat PSD at both parliamentary and presidential polls, taking the reins of government, only for relations to sour and escalate into a war of words between Basescu and PNL prime minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu. The president’s charisma – coupled with Tariceanu’s conspicuous lack of it – has prompted a sizeable faction of the PNL to splinter away, forming the short-lived Liberal-Democrat party, which later merged with the Democrats to form PDL. The clash between Basescu, who elicits strong feelings among supporters and detractors, and Tariceanu, has resulted in PDL leaving the cabinet, with PNL securing support for its minority government from the unlikeliest of sources – PSD.
PNL itself did not do too badly for a party in power, winning 18.7 per cent of the vote and 279 councillor seats, while their coalition partners, the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (abbreviated as UDMR in Romanian), secured 5.4 per cent and 89 councillor seats.
Yet the scars of the confrontation between president and prime minister, dubbed the “war of the palaces” by Romanian media – the Cotroceni palace being the residence of the president and Victoria palace the building that houses the cabinet – run deep. Deep enough so that reconciliation between the two former centre-right allies, PDL and PNL, looks unlikely.
Tariceanu, never the most popular figure even in the ranks of his own party, is another winner to emerge from the local elections. He now looks set to keep leadership of the party even after the inevitable defeat at the parliamentary elections, given the disastrous showing of Ludovic Orban in the mayoral elections in Bucharest, who finished fourth with only 12.1 per cent of the vote. Orban, the incumbent transport minister and brother of Romania’s representative on the European Commission, Leonard Orban, has been the main challenger to Tariceanu’s leadership of the party and one of the prime minister’s biggest critics inside PNL.
Tariceanu’s desire to cling to power, which he made obvious in July 2005 when he made a U-turn on his decision to resign and call snap elections, fearing that Basescu would nominate some other PNL official as prime minister designate after the vote, marked the start of acrimonious clashes with Basescu, a strong proponent of early polls. To keep PNL in government, Tariceanu is said to be considering a coalition with the Social Democrats after the parliamentary polls. This would have been an unthinkable development until recently, considering that PNL was one of the major political parties banned in the aftermath of World War 2 by the Communist party, whose successor is PSD, and the post-1989 enmity between the two parties.
Already in some county councils PSD and PNL have joined forces to deny PDL the upper hand and the Social Democrats have hinted they might not be averse to extending co-operation to a nationwide level. PSD lower chamber floor leader Viorel Hrebenciuc has gone on record as saying that PSD could drop its demands to abolish the flat tax rate, a key election promise of the Democrats and Liberals before the 2004 polls that was passed and went into force in 2005 to secure PNL’s support after this autumn’s elections.
Tariceanu’s other potential rivals in the party, including his predecessor as party leader Theodor Stolojan, left PNL for PDL, which faces its own realignment after the local elections, political columnist Silviu Sergiu wrote in the Evenimentul Zilei daily. The old Democrat guard has done a less-than-stellar job, with former minister Radu Berceanu defeated in Dolj county and another former minister, Vasile Blaga, uncertain of winning the Bucharest mayoral race on June 15. Should Blaga lose against Sorin Oprescu, a former PSD heavyweight twice defeated in run-offs, who now runs as an independent, it would be the first time that rightist parties lose control of the Bucharest mayor post since 1989.
It would also give more weight to Stolojan and his faction of PNL defectors in PDL, since their showing at the polls was the exact opposite – former agriculture minister and one-time candidate for PNL leadership Gheorghe Flutur won the county council chairperson vote in Suceava county and his cousin Catalin Flutur is the new mayor of Botosani, both of them defeating well-entrenched PSD local leaders in the process, Sergiu wrote.
Neither party has much time left to change public perceptions – as soon as summer is over, campaigning will kick into high gear, but, in the past, Romanian political parties have not managed to reverse trends in the short period of time between local and parliamentary elections, though positive momentum can bring out sympathisers to the polling stations to boost turnover and overall results.
The three major parties can rest assured that they will have a strong presence in Romania’s bicameral parliament come winter, but for the three smaller parties in the current legislature, the local elections sounded alarm bells concerning their future tenure in parliament. UDMR, ever flirting with the five-percent electoral threshold, is once again threatened by the spectre of life out of parliament, though if previous elections are any indication, it should do just enough to be represented in parliament.
The situation is much worse for the nationalist Greater Romania party (abbreviated as PRM in Romanian). The party lost ground across the country and now has councillors only in selected counties, a drastic change from the nationwide presence it won in 2004 and a far cry from the heady days of 2000, when PRM leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor shocked the country by receiving enough votes to appear in the presidential run-off, even though he was soundly defeated. For the opportunistic Conservative party, which has repeatedly switched allegiances in recent years, the future looks even grimmer.
PRM and the Conservatives, as well as other parties now outside parliament, have a single hope, and a slim one at that, to win parliamentary seats. Even with Romania’s electoral code change, which mixes plurality voting with proportional representation, they would need to win six seats in the lower chamber and five in the upper chamber to render the five-percent threshold irrelevant. Unfortunately for all those parties, they lack the strong candidates to do so.
With PRM in danger of disappearing from Romania’s political stage, the next legislature could have the smallest number of parties of any post-communist parliament – just four. Yet that is unlikely to make political calculations after the elections any easier and Romania could once again find itself without the strong government needed to push ahead with European Union-mandated reforms, especially in the justice and home affairs department, where the country still faces potential EU sanctions. Far from settling Romania’s politics, the local elections’ realignments could spell more uncertainty for the country.