Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Romania C/A deficit widens 7.5 pct y/y in Jan-April

BUCHAREST, June 16 (Reuters) - Romania's current account deficit widened by 7.5 percent year-on-year to 4.8 billion euros ($7.37 billion) in the first four months of this year, data showed on Monday, signalling accelerating export growth.

Last year the deficit jumped by 130 percent to about 14 percent of gross domestic product after Romania's entry to the European Union meant an end to customs taxes with member states and the leu rose early in the year.

The deficit has become a key headache for Romania, exposing its economy to shocks if global financial woes were to cut down hard currency inflows.

However, a sharp reversal in the leu trend which started last summer slowed the widening of Romania's external shortfall, prompting many analysts to predict a stabilisation of the deficit for this year at around 15 percent of GDP.

Equally, analysts say the latest data reflects an improvement in Romania's export capacity as foreign direct investment generates higher value-added exports.

"The growth of the current account deficit has decelerated on the back of an improving trade balance and positive dynamics of services," said Melania Hancila, research analyst with BCR.
"It is a structural improvement, it is not caused only by the exchange rate ... so it can be judged as a positive signal."

The trade deficit, a key component of the current account, has seen exports expanding at a higher pace than imports in recent months, but the central bank said it needed more time to decide whether the trend was solid.

Central bank data showed the deficit was 66.5 percent covered by foreign direct investment, which reached 3.2 billion euros at the end of April, almost double than the level recorded in the first quarter. (Reporting by Marius Zaharia; editing by Victoria Main)

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